The Portland Cement Association (PCA) expects cement consumption will grow by 2.4% in 2019, 1.7% in 2020 and 1.4% in 2021 based on its annual Fall Forecast.
PCA’s senior vice president Ed Sullivan says: “Public construction continues to receive the benefit of the 2018 federal budget that allowed for $20 billion in spending on roads, bridges, water, and rail projects over 2018 and 2019. These gains come in the context of increased challenges at the state level to manage deficits as entitlement spending growth continues at a strong pace.”
PCA says the analysis shows that the labour market continues to power the US economy and on a monthly basis has generated 161,000 net new jobs since the start of the year. Coupled with mild inflation rates and the continued rise of home prices, it will take some time before the economy takes a significant downturn.
“The economy is now the longest economic expansion post-World War II history. Some of the pent-up demand zip that invigorates the initial stages of economic recovery are long past. As such, the economy is now more vulnerable to economic shocks,” Sullivan continues. “While PCA does not believe data revealed by the economy suggests a recession is near, it does point to a gradually weakening economy.”
PCA forecasts real GDP will grow 2.4% this year and weaken in subsequent years to 2.1% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2021.